New preprint: "Analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bavaria: adjusting for misclassification"

The number of reported cases in a epidemic or pandemic is not necessarily the same as the number of infected. One of the reasons for the divergence is missclassification that occurs while testing, because the sensitivity and spefificity of tests is never 100%.

In this preprint, we “present a method for adjusting the observed epidemic curve of daily new COVID-19 onsets for possible misclassification in infection diagnostics. We discuss different assumptions for specificity and sensitivity of the person-specific COVID-19 diagnostics based on PCR-tests, which are the basis for the daily reported case counts. …".

Updates (German only) are provided weekly via a shiny app where levels of specificity and sensitivity can be adjusted by the user.